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Andrey Mouchan was one of the first bankers after the Soviet Union, but eventually left the world. Currently in London, but still in financial management, he provides his views and views on the impact of the economic crisis on Russia and what it could achieve. Moffchan believes that oligarchs do not have the power to change the course of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and they would even be afraid to try. He said it was seen as a betrayal in Putin’s eyes.
“Putin is someone who remembers that. He values loyalty, hates his enemies, and can take revenge from almost nothing,” Moffchan said. These are the people who worked under his protection. “Imagine,” says Movchan. “They are outside Russia, but they are now coming and in his eyes are trying to determine the conditions and become a western ambassador. Putin’s way is an enemy outside the Russian border. We know that killing is involved. These people may be afraid of their safety, but the prodigal Oligalhi’s Roman Abramovic, in an opaque context, He tried his hand with diplomatic magic and, on the surface, pushed the end of the war.
However, the story behind and the consequences of her efforts remain unclear, and a very common advance was not without allegations of addiction swirling around her. And no matter what addiction happened, it didn’t have a serious impact in the end.
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Moffchan still considers sanctions a legitimate and logical step for the West, but fears that it is nothing more than Putin’s escalation. “He still needs to raise his stakes to maintain his power. If he loses the war and it can still exist, he will dramatically maintain his position. We need to raise our stakes, “says Movchan sadly.
Like many, he predicts more witch hunts and crackdowns at home. “I don’t think things will change. I don’t think the war will end soon. I don’t think the government will collapse. The Russians aren’t ready to change,” he says. And he says he doesn’t know what to do with the newly emerging Russian-frightened West, “Scary and Mad Russia,” but will do his best to contain this Russia on the border.
According to Movchan and many others, the effects of sanctions have not yet been fully felt. But he says they will. And as supply chain problems become more serious, results change. He foresaw problems such as “no fertilizer, no drone to monitor crops,” which will have a major impact on the economy. And there’s a car – something that affects everyone. Russians love imported cars, and this practice is now mostly frozen. “The car problem is already on the market,” says Movchan.
“Recently I was informed that my old car, a five-year-old Lexus in Moscow, is more expensive in the market than when I bought a new car. This is because the deficit already exists and people are real estate. It means you’re still trying to buy a car or real estate because you believe that buying the cost of a car can protect the value of your investment. Let’s see what happens in half a year, but so far By the way, this is just the beginning of the process.
I am familiar with Moscow, but I tell Moffchan that I am a stranger in a large area of a vast country and ask him to draw a larger picture of the Russian economy. He says that capital accounts for 10 percent of the country’s population, 60 percent of Russia’s imports, 70 percent of capital construction, and 80 percent of its financial activity. St. Petersburg occupies most of the rest of the pie.
“Other parts of Russia are economically almost nothing. Like Tyumen, which produces well oil, and Krasnodar and Rostov, which produce grains, wheat, corn, etc., they are now thriving in technology and business. There are some cities, but apart from that, the cities are poor and the infrastructure is poor. It’s still at the level of the 80’s of the last century, “says Movchan.
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Many Russians “dream of their children becoming Russian military officers, tax inspectors, or small secretaries of the local administration. That’s their idea. That’s the size of the desire. “He says. “And in general, if we’re talking about Russia, as you know, GDP per capita is now about $ 9,000 a year per capita. The share of GDP produced by SMEs is 17 percent. Less than. Therefore, in a sense, Russia is a large feudal state with most mineral resources and a very limited number of wealthy people. Forty percent of Russians are officially recognized as poor. About 10 percent of them have savings in banks, and now things will get worse. “
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“All military aircraft, all tanks, all missiles are inherited from the Soviet Union, and since then old techniques have been strictly preserved. Russia has completely lost its technical school and is a Soviet heritage. “I survived,” Moffchan said. .. Putin would oppose it as he recently introduced a new range of military equipment, including hypersonic missiles. But Moffchan argued that if Russia’s arsenal was far more advanced, Moscow would have done much more in the war with Ukraine.