CAC 40 has lost 2% in the last five sessions, ending with 6,548 points on Friday night and losing all leads from last week. The focus was on bubbling inflation on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. The March FOMC minutes show that the Fed is more motivated to raise rates by 50 basis points amid inflationary concerns. Balance sheet reductions will probably be included in the next FOMC menu in May …
The ECB minutes, released Thursday, also showed the urgency to address concerns about inflation expectations. Some are calling for a rate hike in September, while others are calling for a rate hike in December. Bond markets continue to grow as more parts of the Treasury curve have reversed, causing controversy over recessionary signals. 10-year bonds are 2.679% today and 30-year bonds are 2.727%.
Some are concerned that the conflict in Ukraine could put the eurozone in recession later this year. The US economy is also expected to slow rapidly next year …
Eco and currency
Bank of America showed over the weekend that the macroeconomic environment is “rapidly deteriorating” and could put the U.S. economy into recession against the backdrop of monetary tightening … BofA strategists said. He states that the inflation shock is getting worse. The shock begins and the “backward shock” arrives. This is the view of Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Officer of the U.S. Bank, where cash, volatility, commodities and cryptocurrencies could outpace bonds and stocks … Federal government cuts balance sheet from next month I expect it to double. The pace before the quantitative tightening. Traders also expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.5 points on May 4.
Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, a New York investment bank quoted by Bloomberg, states that the United States has shown the largest “overheating” of the job market since the 1950s. Hatzius said federal funds rates could peak above 4% next year if financial conditions aren’t tight enough and the labor market remains “hot.” Therefore, the Fed may have to raise interest rates significantly more than currently expected to calm this overheating of the US economy. “If the economy doesn’t slow down, especially if employment growth doesn’t slow down significantly, we can expect a significant increase of over 4%,” said an economist. According to Bloomberg.
In currency, the euro is 1.09 / $. Oil will return to $ 100 per Brent.
Maurel & Prom: + 11% in Sanofi. This has reached the level of 100 euros, the highest in almost 7 years.
2CRSI: + 9% at Eurofins
GTT + 7%, followed by Nacon, Thales, Edenred
Carrefour: + 4% for Argan, Danone, Remy Cointreau, Sodexo
Neoen: + 3% in Voltaria
SES: + 2% on Euronext, Dassault Aviation, Waga, GroupeGorgé, BioMerieux, Air Liquide, EDF
On the downside, Nicox fell by 15%, followed by Elior and Genomics (-12%) with Plastiva Loire (-11%).
Believe: -11% with natural plastic omnium
SG down 9% at Crédit Agricole, STM, Renault and Atos
Worldline: BNP Paribas, Mercen, Trigano, Veolia, Stellantis Airbus -8% (-7%)