The trouble is that the ruble …–

After a series of fairly impressive continuous rises, the market decided to mark the time yesterday. It was a little as expected. Attention, I’m not saying I was expecting it, it’s too exaggerated on my part, but statistically, the more often it goes up, the more likely it is to stop. Masu-it’s funny When I read it again, I feel like I’m listening to a politician’s speech. Anyway, it’s like a crash, and the next day is approaching day by day. Knowing whether it’s 2 or 2000 days from there is another story. Still, I got off yesterday (finally).

March 24, 2022 Audio

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COVID Happy Birthday Market

First and foremost, we need to note that we have reached the lowest point of the pandemic, as it is today, two years ago. On March 24, 2020, we were at the edge of the abyss and the end was approaching. Our main concern is robbing department stores, collecting 900 rolls of PQ, 500 cans of tuna, 300 kg of pasta and constantly cooking pasta with tuna during the next 45 months of imprisonment. It was to be able to do it.

And today, two years later, we noticed that we were in front of a fallout shelter at home, a shelter filled with PQ, expired pasta and tuna, and emptied them all to free up space. Tell yourself that you need to provide 900 liters of water and an inventory of 980 iodine tablets to prevent the huge delusion of Vladimirputin. As if life was an eternal restart. Still, while learning how to manage PQ stocks from home, the S & P 500 has risen 101% in two years, despite the rotten mood of the last three months. As the pandemic paralyzed the economy and still paralyzed the economy, the index doubled, while Tesla shares performed 1,000% in 24 months, so Elon Musk said Jesus increased bread. Increased the wealth of. Sometimes, like what you buy at your weaknesses, it’s worth it.

Who speaks, who speaks FED

One of the reasons for the market down yesterday was again the Fed. Moreover, it is always the same, given the many reasons that push the market down.

1) Fed, rate hikes, and how to do it – whether investors are stroking in the direction of the hair.
2) War in Ukraine, Zelensky’s speech in support of Macron (unless opposed), Putin’s susceptibility and other strategies
3) The oil seems to be in only one direction, so I bought a Tesla last night and waited in line at the gas station to fill it up, and suddenly I remembered that it wasn’t there when it was my turn.The tank and charging station lines were even longer

Anyway, yesterday Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Fed (no one knows where Cleveland is) and Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed expressed urgency to see interest rates rise faster than expected. There is more and more talk of an increase of 0.5% in May, and we all thought that next year 0.25% would be seven times in a row and four more. Inevitably, we will not get used to it unless we are given time to get used to it.

Approaching reversal

And since we are talking about rising interest rates, there will inevitably be a two-year swing swing. It rises as fast as Tesla in the midst of a pandemic and no longer keeps pace for 10 years. Use yield curve inversion theory to monopolize most media very quickly. You need to get used to it. The spread between 2 and 10 years narrowed to 18 points. Last October was still 130 points. Remember that yield curve reversal works every time. Then the beginning of the recession and the days when the yield curve reverses are often so far apart that you can “timer” things … and it’s always changing and there are also spreads variables.

You no longer come to us by chance

But there is also oil. Citigroup suddenly became bullish on oil and everyone is convinced that oil is rising. Looking at whether oil could fall, and the numbers from Russia, you’ll miss the Houthi attacking the refinery tonight, which is declining in volume. And Putin invented a new strategy. From now on, you will have to pay for Russia’s oil and gas in rubles.

Suddenly the ruble explodes. This measure applies only to unfriendly countries, that is, countries that have recently closed their businesses in Russia. As a result, those who want to buy from Russians need to buy rubles in bulk (of course carefully)-at the same time, support Russian currencies and help Putin fight sanctions in the same country Buy rubles .. Say in French:

“Shoot yourself with your foot.”

All that’s left is not to buy Russian gas … hopefully.

Here is the policy!

It should be noted that some European politicians are screaming for rape, saying that this request from Putin would be a “breach of the rules set out in the contract” … therefore the man There is a hidden politician attacking Ukraine with a bomb At their 300m2 official apartment in Brussels where a man who ordered to bomb Kib at breakfast in the morning is shouting a scandal to disrespect the contract …? ??? seriously? And what else are they going to send the city police to Putin fine because they sued him for “breach of contract” or saw him cross outside the nails?

Asia this morning

So far, Asia is ticking. At the same time, given his recent performance, I can’t blame him. However, the Nikkei has barely fallen, as China and Hong Kong have risen 0.12%. The index that didn’t want to stop falling two weeks ago has changed to an index that refuses to fall. Speaking of refusing to drop, the Russian market will reopen this morning-and foreigners will not be allowed to sell and shorts will be banned because the dice are not loaded at all. Implicitly, in small print, sellers and those in Russia can also pack bags to leave for a long vacation in the northern part of the country. Curiously, when I was a kid, there were many stories of Russians being sent to Siberia and Gulag and punished. Obviously we are back in the past. It goes without saying that the Cold War seems to have begun again.

Therefore, we confirm the fact that oil remains above $ 100 and will soon be in recession. Exploding inflation, oil remaining above $ 100, and a reversal of the yield curve are imminent. Faced with and seeking further advice really needs to be malicious – gold is $ 1938 and you really need to pay attention to Bitcoin tickling $ 43,000 – and in the case of a surge you will You need to miss the train.

News of the day

In today’s news, Biden meets many in Brussels and says Putin is a war criminal who intends to use chemical weapons in Ukraine. You can see that Biden found his Saddam Hussein. He should not give up unless he remembers his name and confuses Putin with Kamala Harris. Moreover, in the process, allies (the people who kicked the German ass in Normandy at the time) are now banning Russians from the airspace, except that Germans are also allies, so new to Russia. Sanctions need to be announced. They are hunting oligarch yachts, preventing Russian athletes from participating in all competitions, seizing Russian banks and Russian government assets into banks, and Yuri from space history. -I have fired Gagarin and my dog ​​Leica has never been there. I wonder what they will get from us. Perhaps it will close the Russian restaurant in Paris, revise the history of the last 500 years, remove everything related to Russia and ban all blue-white-red flags. Because it is reminiscent of Russia. But in any case, there are new sanctions and it is not advisable for Russian vodka fans to secure inventory before it is banned. That’s already the case in Canada.

Otherwise, police officers and judges in the free world – ie; the United States – judged and accused Russia of war crimes. A crime that the United States has never committed in Afghanistan, Syria, and almost everywhere in the turmoil of the last few years. America is the last good guy to win Disney movies, The Avengers, they are not Russians !!! N / A !!! And even if no one is interested at the moment, talk a lot about COVID again You need to remember that you are an “expert” who works half an hour on that subject and half an hour on Russian. -Ukraine crisis, I think it will be fine this spring as we are not out of the inn, but it is very rotten in terms of pollution – Moderna’s new vaccine is very effective for children under 6 years old And a packet of sweets and tagada strawberries.

Number of days

In terms of daily numbers, there are SNB decisions regarding interest rates. Suspense is irresistible. I went to see the movie “Titanic” 814 times, and this time it’s like hoping that the boat will avoid the iceberg. Do nothing with SNB. And in the United States, there are German manufacturing PMIs and unemployment insurance claims.

For now, the more I talk to you, the higher the futures – for now, the New York Open should rise 0.2% in 5 hours – the reliability rate is the same as Joe Biden’s memory: nil.

As always, have a great sunny day and see you tomorrow!

Thomas Vale
Investment .ch

“There’s an old saying in Tennessee-I know it’s in Texas, probably Tennessee-that is, once you deceive me and shame me. Shame you. Deceive me-you You can’t be fooled again. »»
— President George W. Bush, September 17, 2002