“Stock exchanges will begin to’price’the impact of the war in Ukraine on the economy,” Chat

Dennis Landwane: Hello. We are happy to meet you again in a less active session without top-notch information. Investors sail visually, waiting for new information on inflation or interest rates in Ukraine and the United States.

Ivan: Hello. With an S & P of 4,550 and the US market becoming more and more expensive, do you think there is a high risk of returning to 6,000 points in the coming weeks? The end of the quarter caused a very technical rebound.

Returning to 6,000 points, the index will drop by about 10% and return to the March 7 lows when the index reached 5,736 points during the session.

That was when Brent’s oil prices soared to nearly $ 140 a barrel on Monday morning, but Vladimir Putin did not let go of Ukrainian ballast. Levels of $ 150 and even $ 200 were mentioned by certain research institutes. The market was in terror, but inflation was already very high for months.

Later, during this March 7 session, Cac 40 announced that talks between Russians and Ukrainians resumed and that German Prime Minister Olav Schorz opposed the possibility of Russia’s oil import ban. This has significantly reduced the loss. Remember that they are (with gas) ” Essentially important For the European economy.

This is where new pitfalls can arise as product prices soar as a result of the closure of gas supplies to Europe.

Of course, another sudden outage in the course of talks between the two countries will undoubtedly have a new impact on the stock market, but even if the war in Ukraine ends soon, it will leave its mark on the economy. Let’s, and it does the operator start “pricing”?

Wars are expensive. First of all, by the energy shock it caused, and it will create a growth shock. This can be a threat to the food crisis, especially for emerging grain importers.

Consumer prices have already begun to rise dangerously. Inflation in March reached 9.8% in Spain, 7.3% in Germany, 6.4% in the United States and 4.5% in France.

European Union economic growth will decline by at least 1% this year. This should lead to a shortfall of about 7% on average profit per share for Cac 40 companies.

The average profit growth rate for Cac 40 companies should decrease from the previously estimated 12.5% ​​to about 5.5%.

The publication of the first quarter figures, which begins a few days later, will give us suggestions on this subject in this regard.

Overall, it only includes 15% of the risk that the Cac 40 will fall below the 6,200 point threshold by the end of June, while the index probability is 25% at 6,200-6,600 points and 40% at 6,600-7,000 points.

jpcasa: Hello, dear friends, your advice is always concrete. What happens when the Russian Stock Exchange reopens? Above all, how do you see its evolution? Thank you very much.

It reopened a few days ago, but as you can imagine, it’s likely that the price has been manipulated to make it look good. Otherwise, even if you modify the exchange rate, the difference between the quotes observed in Russia and the quotes elsewhere quoted, such as London, will be much smaller.

At the same time, he answers Frederick 59, who asked us about polymetal, which was listed in London and lost 90% of its value despite rising hydrocarbon prices. On my side, I’m not adventurous, but what if it’s for the game and it’s a completely speculative point of view? It’s just your own responsibility.

Epictetus: Hello Dennis Landwane, which is the most likely, between Nacon and Xilam Animation, in the field of video games? In addition, Alstom wins contracts and titles decline or stagnate. Should we stick or throw a towel? Always read you with delight.

Hi, please note that the positions of XilaM Animation and Nacon are not the same.

Nacon, yes, exists in the video game sector. It is a subsidiary of Bigben Interactive in this segment. The company made the largest acquisition in history by acquiring Daedalic Entertainment, which is cooperating with the release of The Lord of the Rings: Gollum.

The publisher, which publishes more than 90 games and has a team of 87 people, is one of Germany’s largest and oldest independent video game companies, running € 50 million. This announcement is welcomed by the market and we are Nacon buyers for the continued recovery of the video gaming sector.

Xilam produces animated films such as Oggy Oggy, Zig and Sharko. We are also buyers after the very good fiscal year 2021 that the group has just achieved.

Sales increased 63% and operating and net income doubled (+ 144%). Budget movie.

With the targets for 2022 and 2023 confirmed, the company is clearly profitable and has the means to make an acquisition.

Finally, there is already some distrust on the part of investors, ending in Alstom with the addition of the war in Ukraine. Transport equipment manufacturers are particularly sensitive to Russian and Western sanctions through a 20% stake in TransmashHolding. (TMH), a major manufacturer of railway equipment, is subject to regulations.

The book value is € 482 million and, of course, depreciation is expected to impact Alstom’s performance.

However, the journalist responsible for the value of the weekly magazine is a buyer of potential activities in other parts of the world beyond simple Russia. And this behavior has already lost more than 50% in a year.

Phil: I know Assystem is one of the averages of Oddo, so why are you always avoiding Assystem … Thank you. From the bottom of my heart.

I quite agree with you. Investing in nuclear power encourages me to be interested in value, even if it is part of a very long-term program.

Our journalists believe that the title is currently too expensive and not interested in it in the context of the current market. There may be a shooting window. But I also admit that it is attractive. Playing this theme is a good vector, with over 70% of sales achieved in France.

Villard: Apple now seems to be threatening Worldline’s development prospects. What are your thoughts on this new element? With gratitude.

This was one of the news last week and the World Line was down in the news on Thursday. Bloomberg agencies have reported that Apple has begun developing its own technology in payment services and infrastructure for those who didn’t follow this story.

This project aims to enable the Apple brand to ultimately offer its own financial services. These are still speculations, but they’re never inconsistent with Apple’s strategy and are projects that won’t be revealed in the coming months or even years. But it’s enough to come from Gaffam …

The problem with competitive risk is, of course, overwhelming players in payment solutions like Worldline when the project is over, but in the meantime. recovery Of the world line that has just begun. Growth finally resumed in the last quarter, with little exposure to Ukraine and inventories down 46% in a year.

GV: Hello. As an example, how would you calculate your net worth revalued using Wendell? At n ° 2516, the text specifies an ANR of € 188.10 on December 31, 2021 and a net worth of € 44.81 per share in the same section of the Investment Standards slip. How would you explain this difference? Is this due to the nature of Wendell’s holding company, which owns listed and unlisted shares? The GA season starts this month in April, when do you get voting advice? Thank you for your reply. From the bottom of my heart.

This is the last question in this chat. Yes, there is a difference between book assets and revalued net worth. Net books assets are in the company’s books and may be depreciated. Revalued net worth is valued according to the stock market value for listed companies and the market otherwise, so the company’s value is usually recalculated on a revaluation basis every six months.

This is the ANR discount you see when buying or selling a holding company on the stock market. On the other hand, in the case of industrial companies, for example, net book assets are a good measure of financial security cushions that, in principle, do not lower prices.

For the rest of the questions, yes, every year we follow the major general meetings of the season and make recommendations for voting and reporting on the site.

Thank you for your question and loyalty. Rémi Le Bailly will have a new chat next week at 4pm. see you soon.