Paris: Return to fragile balance, WStreet will relapse tonight-20:06 February 22, 2022

( Paris stock market will end the day’s session in a balanced manner with 6,787 points, the same level as yesterday (SBF-120 will end green at + 0.02%).

Meanwhile, the index carried out major volatility, losing up to 2.5% this morning, gradually recovering during the day and providing a short advance into the positive territory in the afternoon. , Up to 6,834 points.

But given the very tense situation in Ukraine, investors are still cautious. Last night, Vladimir Putin acknowledged the independence of the two separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, and announced his intention to send troops there to “maintain peace.”

“The decision to send troops to Ukraine seems to have shattered hopes for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, at least for the foreseeable future,” the lab’s Capital Economics team responded this morning.

The Kremlin Master’s Declaration urged the Commission to react and point out “a serious breach of international law and the Minsk Agreement.” Europe is also going further, announcing “targeted sanctions on those involved in this illegal activity.”

The Union also reaffirmed this morning “unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders.”

As part of that, Germany announced the closure of Nordstream-2 (although it was not open due to lack of certification) and sanctions on banks working in Donbus. So far, the military conflict between the Western camp and Russia does not seem to be imminent.

According to Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reed, the next step could be to implement economic and financial sanctions on Russia.

Such scenarios are not without risk as long as Moscow can take retaliation measures, especially by acting on the faucets that supply gas to the Old World.

“Europe has a lot to lose financially and the reaction will be particularly interesting,” said Jim Reed.

London rose 0.1% across the channel, abandoned 0.2% across Rhine Frankfurt, and across the Atlantic, New York’s major index resumed after a long weekend of “Washington’s Birthday.”

In the middle of the session, the difference widened significantly. The Dow Jones are -1.8%, the S & P500 is -1.7% to 4,275 (support threat), and the Nasdaq is -2% to 13,275 (13,350 compromise support).

Not surprisingly, oil prices are benefiting from new concerns that tensions between Russia and the West will ultimately disrupt energy supplies.

US light crude oil (WTI) barrels are now up almost 4% to close to $ 95, the highest since 2014, with Brent surpassing $ 97 (returning to $ 95.6 tonight). ).

The yen has also benefited from its status as a safe haven, with gold ranging from 0.7% to $ 1913.5 per ounce, peaking for almost two years.

Government bonds do not benefit from access to stress. Yields on 10-year US bonds will be tightened from +1 point to 1.932%, the Bund will deteriorate from +3 points to 0.2620%, and OAT will deteriorate from +3 points to 0.726%.

Geopolitical news is clearly left to the background of economic indicators, but given the uncertainties currently surrounding the evolution of monetary policy, they promise to be lessons learned.

According to S & P Case-Shiller, after focusing on the Ifo index (improving) in Germany’s business environment in the morning, operators discovered that US real estate prices rose + 18.6% in January. The index (economists expected an annual increase of only + 18% after + 18.3% in November.

According to the IHS Markit Composite PMI Index, growth in US private sector activity accelerated significantly in February. This was 56 in the flash estimate, compared to 51.1 in the last month’s final data.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence fell slightly from 111.1 to 110.5 in February, but was lower than expected (consensus: 109).

On the other hand, the element of “determining the current situation” has been improved from 144.5 to 145.1.

In French company news, Worldline (+ 10.5%) announced a normalized EPS of € 1.57 in 2021, up 5.4%, OMDA margin improved by 220 basis points, 25.3% of earnings and free cash flow. It was 407 million euros (43.6). % OMDA conversion.

Edenred (+ 4.7%) has increased its share of the net income group by 31%, reaching a record high of € 313 million in the past year and EBITDA of 670 million, the upper limit of the announced target. Recorded at 15% (+ 18%). like-for-like).

Airbus, Safran and Tikehau Ace Capital have announced that they have signed a memorandum of understanding with the mining and metallurgical group Eramet (+ 5% at 109E) for the acquisition of their subsidiary Aubert & Duval. The three partners will acquire 100% of Aubert & Duval through a new joint holding company specially established for this business.

Finally, EDF shares were downgraded by Moody’s. Financial rating agencies announced last night that they had lowered their long-term credit ratings from “A3” to “Baa1” by adding a “negative” perspective.