If you’ve been on a desert island for 9 months, have no connection to the world of civilization, and don’t have a smartphone to see where your Facebook friends ate or how to make it, on Instagram Raising your right eye with your left hand, you suddenly reconnected to reality today. You won’t understand anything about what’s going on. During Ukraine’s inflation, interest rates and war – just looking at the level of a particular indicator can quickly lead you to ask yourself about the mental state of the market.
March 21, 2022 Audio
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You need to note all the same things to put the church back in the middle of the village, put a dot on i, put a bar on T, and set the clock back to time.
1) Inflation is the highest in 40 years and is dusty. Most of us don’t remember what it was like 40 years ago.
2) The Fed has just begun a two-year rate hike cycle (according to the Fed itself and the roadmap published and presented last week).
3) Psychologically, we know that the market is not a fan of growth (at least at the beginning of the cycle).
4) We are experiencing the first war on the European continent since World War II
5) The President of Ukraine announced this weekend that he believed that Russia’s invasion was the beginning of World War III.
6) Biden roams Poland tomorrow to show off at the Ukrainian border
7) COVID is picking up again in China and Hong Kong, China’s largest tech city is closed for COVID, Disneyland is closed for COVID (in China, not the US), but in the west I Isn’t so I wasn’t afraid of anything the last time the wave started in China, so we managed things well, so there’s nothing really to worry about
8) This morning we suspended the Evergrande title in Asia, but no one knows why …
Still, despite the accumulation of news that can be described as miserable and “unreliable,” the market has given us the best week since November 2020. Recalling our experience since then, we can say ourselves that it is nothing yet. The entire tech sector, which has been dismantled for months, has finally regained color, and even Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund, which has been slaughtered since the beginning of the year, has regained color with an increase of 18% each week. And if you dig into the weekend press, you’ll find all the buying opportunities and recommendations for the sector that was still desperately at the bottom of the hole 10 days ago.
Nothing has changed
Still, nothing has changed and there is no improvement in inflation. Seeing the barrel jump above $ 100 again is unlikely to change next week. Prices have risen for two years and the war is clearly not over. Nobody cares about COVID, but if you look at what’s happening in China, I think you won’t be back in the face within three weeks. And even if Pfizer and Moderna require a fourth dose, we already recommend making a fifth appointment to receive the sixth free dose.
But anyway, the market is changing and seems to be in the acceptance stage. We integrate the rate rise and tell ourselves that it is even more accurate. We know it’s a war in Ukraine, but don’t be afraid until it boils and gets worse. And that inflation will be bravely fought by the Fed, who has never seen it come before. Basically, we already know everything, so nothing can surprise us.
Technically, we must say that the US charts are doing the right thing, the downtrend is breaking, and the S & P500, Nasdaq, and SOX are in the integration stage. We are no longer talking about the bear market, we are just talking about the rebound of the fix. Some charts continue to be vigilant for signs of overbought, but for now it seems relatively calm so as not to surprise anything.
Traders will also find that, for example, in the semiconductor sector, only 6% of stocks are trading above the 200-day average. This means that the sector is significantly oversold (or all crap). There are quite a lot of sectors. In short, the American financial press is suddenly very bullish and optimistic, but just 10 days ago, they were on the verge of tearing their wrists with a butter knife, the atmosphere was corrupt, and a war broke out. I felt it was dangerous and not beautiful.
Fortunately, in the meantime, visionary Powell should explain how he behaves to survive inflation, what the pace of rate hikes will be, how often, where and when. became. And because markets hate uncertainty, in Powell’s statement we stuck to the fact that we know exactly where we are heading and how we are going there. All, when she has to do it.
On the other hand, in Asia
But in Asia this morning, it’s not much more “bullish” than the American press says … futures are down 0.4%, even if the index remains almost unchanged, but China closes Disneyland due to COVID. Announced (sounds like a thing) and Evergrande was closed this morning – without explanation. And as much as telling you that we really don’t want to know why they paused it.
For the rest, the crypto does nothing and Bitcoin has adapted to about $ 40,000 and seems happy with it. Gold is $ 1927 and no one is interested in it anymore, the barrel is $ 106.64. By the way, it should be noted that EIA is proposing innovative solutions to reduce oil consumption. Significantly lowers the speed limit. It’s useless in Geneva as it’s impossible to exceed 30 per hour.
News of the day
The big and very important news that has plagued European leaders over the past few days is to know how they present Zelensky for the Nobel Peace Prize !!! Especially the registry. The “deadline” for was January 31st.
That’s why we have 35 European leaders who have signed the petition so that Zelensky can participate in the contest again this year. It turns out that Europeans are really concerned because managing this kind of problem is not easy. In addition, Macron would be angry because he was hoping to get it for him next year-he worked very hard on his work on a boat at his office in Elysee. He thinks it’s still stupid to miss him, Kennedy. In my opinion, he shouldn’t know how Kennedy ended.
Otherwise, to the surprise of the people, Standard & Poor’s puts Russian debt in junk. Which class, what expectations. I don’t know what to say. It’s also important to remember that Nike released quarterly figures today and both Powell and Lagarde say.
For now, we are at the pinnacle of happiness and self-confidence. As long as it continues, and unless we come too soon to get back to the harsh reality of things. As far as I am concerned, I hope Monday and the beginning of the week are very good. See you tomorrow morning at the same time and place!
See you tomorrow.
“Pessimists find it difficult on every occasion. Optimists see it in every opportunity. — Winston Churchill.