Europe forecasts without clear trend ahead of US inflation data-May 27, 2022 08:08

Europe expected without a clear trend

Europe expected without a clear trend

By Laetitia Volga

Paris (Reuters)-Major European stock markets are expected to be in a scattered order, but there is a small spread at the opening on Friday while waiting for the release of key indicators of US inflation.

The first indicators available show a 0.05% drop at CAC 40 in Paris, a 0.07% rise at Dax in Frankfurt, and a 0.28% drop at FTSE in London.

The latter could suffer Thursday’s decision to impose an exceptional tax of 25% on the interests of oil and gas producers to support financial assistance to households facing inflation.

Despite the expected slight decline, the London Stock Exchange, like any other major European market, should end its week of rise.

The Stoxx600 and CAC 40 traded at their highest levels on Thursday in more than a week, as investors were relieved in “a few minutes” from the Federal Reserve and suggested that rate-raising agencies could be suspended by the end of the year. I’m done.

Bank of America strategists said, “Recently, there have been minor but significant changes in federal communications, and some officials are proposing options for slowing down or suspending.

The market follows the release of monthly statistics on US household income and expenditures at 12:30 GMT. This includes the PCE Consumer Price Index, which is closely monitored by the federal government.

Excluding the “core” version, the energy and food volatile category, the index is expected to rise 4.9% over the year. This shows a slowdown after 5.2% in March, avoiding aggressive monetary tightening.

On wall street

Wall Street is expected to remain largely unchanged after a surge on Thursday, as strong expectations from retail groups and reduced anxiety over future Fed rate hikes have prompted investors to take risks. [.NFR]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.61% to 32,637.19 points, the S & P-500 rose 1.99% to 4,057.84 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.68% to 11,740.65 points.

American distributors have warned of annual performance in recent weeks, but Macy’s (+ 19.3%) is relieved to raise its profit forecast for the year.

Discount chains Dollar General and Dollar Tree rose 13.7% and 21.9%, respectively, after announcing high forecasts for annual sales. This suggests that consumers are looking to the cheapest products as inflation has reached highs for decades.

In Asia

After three negative sessions, the Nikkei Stock Average in Tokyo rose 0.65% in the wake of Wall Street.

In the Chinese market, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and CSI 300 will take 0.62% and 0.8%, respectively, after the long-awaited speech by the head of US diplomacy on US strategy for China. Opposition between the two world powers.

Antony Blinken said Washington does not want a “new Cold War” with Beijing and will not change China’s political system, but will defend international law and a system that allows countries to coexist. ..

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.65% after Alibaba (+ 12.52%) and Baidu (+ 15.04%) outperformed expectations.

Exchange / charge

Traders have revised their expectations that the Fed’s monetary policy could delay or suspend the rate hike cycle in the fourth quarter, causing the dollar to recede to its lowest level in a month against a basket of benchmark currencies. did.

Therefore, the euro will rise to 1.0752, the highest since April 25th.

In the bond market, 10-year government bond yields are 2.7504%, down one basis point.

oil

Oil prices on Friday have changed little and should not be driven by the European Union’s outlook for Russia’s oil import ban to prevent Brent from achieving its best weekly performance in a month and a half. ..

Brent rose 0.22% to $ 117.66 a barrel and US light crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.14% to $ 114.25.

(Written by Laetitia Volga, edited by Matthieu Protard)

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