Did we lie without knowing our free will?

After a crazy week, it’s time to get back to reality. Jerome Powell’s inflation, rate and suspicion. Taka, the governor of the U.S. Central Bank (which isn’t intended to be a pun), questioned the minds of buyers who added some fuel to the fire and nevertheless found plans for five years since the FED’s last meeting. I threw it. What had been stoned since last Wednesday suddenly seemed a little less noticeable. It’s a little more fragile and a bit like a peace plan between Ukraine and Russia.

March 22, 2022 Audio


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Overbought stocks and challenging market planning

Powell has already questioned what he said last week as an overbought market. We all agree with the fact that the FED is so clear and the roadmap announced last week was like a plan to make a Lego box, so unless you just follow the instructions and have a cat, everyone will be pleased. When you start playing with the box in question, the risk of crashes is relatively minimal.

But here, yesterday, Powell told the economist audience that the Fed wouldn’t hesitate to raise rates more aggressively than expected, if necessary. Basically, the Fed’s fight plan was rarely implemented when it was said, “I don’t even know if I’m following it.” It is a fight plan. As a result, it was dark yesterday and all indices ended up in the red – a small but still in the red.

And it did not count the fact that behavioral analysts following Powell closely believed that the Fed’s chief was very concerned about inflation. Than the rest. If we had for some time believed that he could come and support us if the stock market was significantly modified, as we experienced in March 2020, then yesterday’s speech and action would be us. Suggests that you can always listen. Powell is worried about curbing inflation. He can’t expect anything else until it’s done. It’s a bit like hovering at the end of this meeting yesterday. And that’s not necessarily what we wanted to hear.

Oil remembers the theme of inflation

And since the subject of inflation is the latest fashionable and seems to be the only thing that worried experts yesterday, I couldn’t help noticing that the barrel was rising again. Brent is trading at $ 118.50 and WTI is $ 112.50. There are many reasons for the increase and there are various reasons. It all started with the Houthi rebels attacking a Saudi refinery. Aramco is forced to delay production, knowing that these attacks are frequent and that Saudi Arabia is already lagging behind production quotas. This does not help people relax.

In the aftermath, a group of European ministers gathered around Petit Fours to discuss the continuation of sanctions imposed on Moscow. One possibility is to boycott Russian oil and gas. It didn’t help to see the gas and oil explode a little more, so what was left behind (for now) is because we’re already looking for alternatives to warming up, burning tax returns, and so on. .. Burn their ballots for the militants. It’s not certain that this boycott will be carried out by Europeans-yes, fear, it shouldn’t be ordered-but undoubtedly, the fact that we talk about it alone raises oil like a cork. Probably it has been stored underwater for too long. And at this point, as we know, the rise in barrel relations rhymes with inflation more than anything else. This explains some of the gloomy days we have just experienced.

In addition to that, the overbought market

With Powell’s indecisiveness and the fact that he suddenly turned the market in the wrong direction, oil rose sharply, the problematic relationship with inflation was revisited, and the recent rebounds All indices and stocks in the overbought territory, in addition to the fact that they remained virtually, have not been easy to find the power to continue to drive rebounds.

We know that players are now cramming cash into every corner and don’t know what to do with it. But after a spectacular rebound like last week, it’s not easy to find a motive to continue exercising, especially when the media throws you the words inflation and rate hikes all day long. Looking at the graph, it’s not complicated to understand that the climb is tired of one or more and takes a little longer than the FED boss who is wondering if it can rise quickly. For now, I want to make a profit. Unless Ukraine and Russia find a way to end the hostilities before there are no buildings left in Ukraine.

Further negotiations in the future

President Zelensky said last night he was ready to meet directly with Moscow, especially Putin. He believes it is impossible to know if the Russian president really wants to stop the war without being able to talk to Putin. Nevertheless, Zelensky is ready to find a solution in Donbus and Crimean in exchange for Ukrainian security. In the meantime, Moscow continues to test almost every weapon at hand, so for now he seems to be talking to himself in a vacuum. Americans scream and die every five minutes, one using unstoppable hypersonic missiles and the other accusing Russia of using chemical weapons.

Obviously, the “weapons of mass destruction” strategy that worked in Iraq still seems to work. Biden warms us up in a way that comes from the adorable W Bush, and he tells himself that as long as he plays and wins, he will be wrong to rob it. In any case, the market is distractingly watching over these debates. It doesn’t seem to worry them most unless we decide to reconcile. A discussion that may be often used to launch the second part of a recent rally. In any case, plant enough motivation.

And in the meantime, in the wonderful financial world …

Fortunately, however, there are days when there is news, like yesterday, that can escape the war in Ukraine and inflation in other parts of the world. Yesterday there was a lot of information to remember about companies that have their own lifespan and are independent of the lifespan of the index. Therefore, it was necessary to keep the Nike figure publication. Nike is like a quarterly UFO. This is because, for some reason, Air Jordan’s sneaker seller and inventor systematically publishes quarterly numbers outside of the traditional publishing season. This Monday, Beaverton released market-pleasing numbers as the title won 5% after closing, but the slowdown in sales in China continues to be felt for imaginary reasons.

Warren Buffett got the reinsurance company Allegany, so I remember two acquisitions on the same day. He pays 11.6 billion cash and 29% premium compared to the price over the last 5 days. Allegany soared 25% in yesterday’s news. And another title that was absorbed by the private equity group Toma Bravo was the software company Anaplan. The advertised price is $ 66, 46% higher than the previous day’s price. Not only Jerome Powell’s inflation, war and mood, but this smoke screen occupies a little too much of us, so we’ll take the time to investigate further.

Asia

The Far East market is all rising. In addition, Tokyo accounts for 1.6% and Hong Kong accounts for 1.2%, which is good for some people. China is still a little behind, only 0.14% ahead. COVID has been squeezing the region many times, but despite this and overnight news from the West, Asia is doing well this morning. It should be noted that in China, Alibaba has announced a share buyback of approximately $ 25 billion. This shows that Alibaba still knows where to invest.

And for the rest, futures have fallen 0.1%, gold has traded at $ 1937, oil has skyrocketed and Bitcoin has risen 3.5%. At the crossroads, you’ll need to fasten your belt, but given the signs of overbought, you’ll bet more on pulling back to $ 39,000 before taking the final break in the rise by the end of the month.

News of the day

Of course, in today’s news, there’s a lot to talk about Powell and his fears of inflation, and the fact that he’s turning into an increasingly big hawk. I will talk about Ukraine, but I will not explain it again. Next, I will talk about the Boeing crash in China. It killed 132 people in a nearly vertical fall of nearly 10,000 meters. .. Boeing’s inventory has been lost by more than 3% in the news. This is primarily due to the fact that it was a Boeing 737-800 and everyone was confused with the 737-Max, which had been glued to the ground for two years after two consecutive collisions. .. The 737-800 has an impeccable track record. China is also the biggest purchaser of this model. After this crash, all of China’s 737-800s have also been “grounded”, which could lead to some aviation problems in China in the coming weeks.

Foxconn, Apple’s Chinese partner, has announced that operations will return to normal after the COVID blockade. iPhone owners can rest assured. The next best friend will definitely be supplied. In the rest of the news, we also note that veteran fund manager Jim Chanos believes that Coinbase is a speculative bubble and he’s significantly shorting it. He feels that the company is inflating the results and is very expensive compared to the market. In the “optimistic” section of all sorts, there was also a Morgan Stanley strategist who believed that the index was still in the bear market and needed to “sell this vicious rally.” Recall that the bear market is defined as starting as soon as it drops 20% from its recent highs. But if I change the rules every 5 minutes, I don’t know what to say !!!

I have nothing to say about the numbers for the day except that Mrs. Lagarde speaks, but since she speaks every day, no one cares. Futures are still down 0.10% and oil is even more expensive.

have a nice day. See you tomorrow at the same place. As usual!

see you tomorrow.Thomas Vale

Investment .ch

“Courage is what you need to get up and talk, and you need to sit and listen — Winston Churchill.