(CercleFinance.com)-The Paris Stock Exchange may end the session flat: thanks to a small number of treasury (Societe Generale + 6%, AXA + 3%, BNP), the bias is slightly positive (slightly). + 0.1% to 6,550) remains + 2% for Paribas).
However, the end of the session does not look lucky due to the rising rate of decline on Wall Street (-0.6% on the Dow Jones, -1% on the S & P500, -1.7% on the Nasdaq).
In addition, E-Stoxx50 fell by -0.6%, DAX by -0.7% and AEX by -1.5%.
A decline in oil barrels (in London, “Brent” returns to $ 100 per barrel) should ease the market, but a decline in energy stocks (and related stocks) weighs on the trend (which is also on W-). Yes). As it was when the store opened).
Concerns about global growth associated with the effects of the war in Ukraine (GDP expected to be -45% in 2022) and worsening health in China, and the implementation of new captivity (what was deprived of food and drugs) The surreal scene of thousands of people (many victims reported in Shanghai) is, in fact, a significant decline in exports to the West and the fear of serious “chaos” (lack of spare parts, paralyzed industry). Is causing.
It should be noted that some of the new sanctions the EU is envisioning against Russia include a boycott of oil and an additional list of persons whose property may be confiscated.
In the fixed income compartment, the US 10-year yield approached 2.76% this morning, confirming an upward trend in interest rates. The “20-year-old” has tested the highest level of 3.000% in almost three years. Flirt at 1.29%.
Gold has held up very well, rising + 0.5%, due to contact with the resistance of about $ 1,960.
“After the seller’s episode in early March, the stock market is still in a recovery phase, but investors still prefer commodity-related defense stocks and sectors,” Liberum said.
These cautious developments have fueled debate about the risk of stock declines in the context of monetary tightening, especially in the United States.
According to the latest Fed minutes, the US economy is strong enough to withstand rapid monetary tightening, which means that rate hikes could accelerate in the coming months.
Therefore, beyond the progress of the war in Ukraine, the Central Banker’s Declaration should be an important focus for the market over the next few weeks.
These factors should provide investors with an opportunity to assess a company’s ability to cope with the new inflationary environment, both in terms of margins and growth.
Some speakers are also worried about the outcome of the French presidential election and the unexpected duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.
“Macron’s lead (28%), which surpasses Le Pen (24%) at the end of the first round, is higher than that of 2017, but polls show a narrower score in the second round (53%). -47%) ”, emphasizes to Danske Bank strategists this morning.
However, “suspense” looks very thin because Marine Le Pen’s voice seems to have limited reserves.
In French company news, “luxury” is squeezing the trend (-3% for Hermes and Kering), and the above-mentioned Chinese “blockade” is a concern.
M6 Group and Altiche Media announced on Friday night that they have signed a sales agreement for the first and second 6ter channels.
In addition, TF1 and Altice Group announced on Friday night the signing of a contract related to the sale of TFX channels to Altice Group.
Societe Generale announced that it has signed an agreement to sell all of Rosbank’s shares and its Russian insurance subsidiary to Rosbank’s former shareholder, Interros Capital, as part of its withdrawal from Russia.
Finally, Saint-Gobain announced that it will invest $ 32 million in the Certain Teed plant in California, USA. This group will increase production capacity by 13% and reduce carbon dioxide emissions from adiabatic plants.