(CercleFinance.com)-The Paris stock market (+ 0.8%) has regained more bullish momentum with the Dow Jones + 0.4% and the S & P 500 + 0.6%, triggered by Wall Street.
CAC 40 remained attracted to 6,310 by TotalEnergies (+ 3.8% to 54.4E), which alone has floated French stocks since its opening.
Investors remain cautious amid repeated concerns about the potential for aggressive rate hikes from central banks, a major risk factor in today’s market.
The Fed’s James Bullard is basically in favor of appealing for a +75 Pts rise, as the 50 Pts rate is already “priced”.
Christine Lagarde made a speech in Davos, promising a rate management schedule. At the end of summer (which triggers twice +25 points by the end of September), she said she would no longer have a negative rate (special repo is -50 base points).
However, some commentators are wondering if the weakening of the global economy, which is increasingly embodied by the latest indicators, can delay the monetary tightening cycle: “too much” and “too little”. The apex road between will be very narrow to the central bank.
The FED Minutes, released tonight at 8 pm, will probably allow its members to determine how aggressive they are ready to adopt to curb inflation.
If it shows more attention and moderation, this could facilitate a rebound on Wall Street. Wall Street is showing an unprecedented eight-week consecutive decline for the foreseeable future. “Change, or even hope for change, can catalyze the recovery of the stock market and economy, along with fiscal easing,” La Financière de l’Echiquier believes.
On the macroeconomic side, durable consumer goods orders rose 0.4% in the US last month (after 0.6% in March), falling below consensus, according to the Department of Commerce.
Orders for consumer durables in the United States rose slightly to 0.3% in April, with the exception of the transport sector, where volatility is considered particularly volatile.
In Europe, INSEE shows that French household confidence has declined in May, but not as sharply as in March and April. At 86, the overall index fell 1 point, well below the long-term average.
The balance of household opinions on past financial conditions has lost two points, and opinions on future financial conditions are stable. It is also less likely that you would recommend saving it.
The outlook for the coming months remains bleak, but global growth is still expected to be 3.3% this year, and investors may gradually return to equities.
“When the horizon is clear, the best stock market transactions don’t happen, but conversely, when it’s particularly blocked,” recalls La Financière de l’Echiquier.
In the bond market, after the first easing, yields on 10-year government bonds were stable, OAT was stable, and foreign bonds were down + 1pt to 0.96%.
In French company news, TotalEnergies announced the signing of a 50% acquisition of Clearway Energy Group (CEG), presented as the fifth American player in renewable energy, with Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP). ..
Stellantis has deepened its partnership with American Palantir, and the two groups are now planning to work together in areas such as the supply chain.
In addition, Stellantis and Samsung SDI have announced an investment of more than $ 2.5 billion in a joint venture to build a production plant for lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles in Kokomo, Indiana, USA.
Finally, Manutan International announced a net profit of € 26.7 million, up 34.1% from 2021 to the first half of 2010, with a profit of € 439.7 million, up 11.8% from the end of March 2021. Growth accelerated in the second quarter. Quarterly (+ 18.1%).