CAC 40 rebounded 1.3%

trend

CAC 40 regained 6,430 points from 1.30% on Tuesday, but is concerned that the economy may slow sharply as the war in Ukraine continues and the health crisis in China continues. … Wall Street is recovering a bit Also, with good consumption figures, cheap purchases.

Eco and currency

US retail sales showed resilience in April … in line with FactSet’s consensus, up 0.9% compared to the previous month, up 0.6% against a 0.3% consensus excluding cars. .. Excluding vehicles and gasoline, consumption increased 1% month-on-month and market consensus was 0.8%.
According to the Fed on Tuesday, US industrial production in April 2022 increased 1.1% from the previous month, with a consensus of 0.4%. Manufacturing production increased 0.8% against a market consensus of 0.3%. The occupancy rate was 79%, but the consensus was 78.6% and the previous month was 78.2%.

Is the Federal Reserve in the process of recessing the US economy, forced to raise interest rates at a substantially accelerated pace in up to 40 years to combat inflation? I need to ask a question. Elon Musk yesterday determined that the United States was probably already in recession … “These things are gone and the boom is coming again,” at the “All-in” summit at Miami Beach. Musk said. “Probably one year, maybe 12 to 18 months will be difficult.”

Concerns about a recession have recently increased as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to curb inflation, which is nearing its highest pace since the early 1980s, according to Bloomberg’s latest monthly survey. Of an economist.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at a live event in The Wall Street Journal tonight. It should confirm that the Fed is primarily focused on inflation. He is also expected to repeat the Fed’s forecast of a 50 basis point rate hike at the next two meetings, with a rapid push to neutral rates and the possibility that the central bank will push interest rates back into restricted areas. Justified. The market may be most interested in Powell’s view of the impact, even with the recent decline in risk assets. So far, Fed officials have not expressed concern about this issue. They also expressed their desire to see further tightening of fiscal conditions. Other topics of interest revolve around balance sheet size and whether Powell is beginning to see signs that inflation may have peaked.
The euro will rise at 1.05 / $ tonight. Oil has been strong at around $ 115 per Brent.

Value to rise

Adocia + 11% on Avenir Telecom

Poxel: + 7%, Eriol and Orpea rise

LFE: + 6% at Valneva, who rebounded yesterday’s rebound

Engie (+ 5.5%) released financial information as of March 31, 2022, citing strong performance in exceptional market conditions and reporting an upward revision of the 2022 outlook. The total amount increased by 85% to 25.6 billion euros. 84.4% on an organic basis. EBITDA was € 4.6 billion, up 49% gross and 50.7% organic. Ebit, worth € 3.5 billion, organically recorded a total increase of 74% and 76.4%. Cash flow from operating activities was only negative € 100 million. Net financial debt was € 27.3 billion, an increase of € 2 billion compared to December 31st. Net economic debt was € 40 billion, an increase of € 1.7 billion compared to the end of December 2021.
Given the very strong performance of the first quarter of 2022 and the reassessment of assumptions specifically related to commodity price volatility, Engie is currently forecasting a net recurring result, Group Share (RNRpg). .. In 2022, the EBITDA range will be between 11.7 and 12.7 billion euros and the EBIT will be between 7 and 8 billion euros, with a range of 3.8 to 4.4 billion euros. Given the current situation of high volatility, the scope of guidance has been expanded. Engie’s 2022 forecast is based on the strength of the integrated model. Since the beginning of the crisis, Engie has taken many steps to increase and diversify its gas sources and to optimize its gas hedging position. Engie considered a variety of scenarios, including gas supply interruption scenarios, in presenting an upward revision of the guidance. Given that risk management measures are in place for most of these scenarios, the expected performance in 2022 will be for growing renewable capacity, critical regulatory infrastructure, and a flexible thermal power portfolio. Maintain resilience thanks to an integrated economic model based on it. plant.
Engie continues to aim for a “strong investment grade” credit rating and a ratio of net economic debt to Ebitda of 4.0x or less in the long run. The Group will reaffirm its dividend policy based on the RNRpg’s 65-75% distribution rate for the period 2021-2023 and a minimum dividend of € 0.65 per share.

Eramet: Mauna Kea, + 5% at Orapi

Imerys: + 4% with Serge Ferrari and Transgene

SG: + 3%, followed by GL Event, Worldline, Nexans, Schneider, Nacon, Clara Nova, Atos

Renault: + 2.5% for S30, STM, LVMH, Alstom, STEF, Believe, JC Decaux, Crédit Agricole

Drop value

Rally: -8% (-3%) at the casino

AB Science: Axway, Aures (-3%), Waga (-2%) -4%

Plastivaloire (-1.5%) recovered in the second quarter of the 2021 to 2022 fiscal year, at a level very close to the activity achieved in the second quarter of 2020 to 2021, but in 2019. Announced that it has recovered from the second quarter of 2020. crisis. Thus, sales during this period were down -2% compared to the first quarter, but increased + 11% quarter-on-quarter to 178.5 ME, in line with the scenario of improving quarterly trends. became. The group benefited from a significant recovery in activity in the Americas zone (revenue 26.3 ME, + 32% increase), especially as a result of launching new programs in both automobiles rather than industry. This performance offsets the decline in activity in Europe (152.2 million euros, or -6%), but is still heavily influenced by the difficulty of supplying electronic components.

Trigano: -1%, Danone, Pernod Ricard, Eutelsat, Thermador, LNA.