Another week of high volatility in financial markets! More resilient than Wall Street, CAC 40 limits the drop in five sessions to 1.2% and this Friday night to 6,285 points. The announcement by the People’s Bank of China that it has reduced one of its major interest rates by 15 basis points is a new step to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy and has brought peace of mind. A potential recession in the economy, or even a recession against the backdrop of soaring prices …
In this environment, the surge in interest rates at major central banks remains a major concern at this time. Fed chairman Jerome Powell said this week that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy until inflation clearly shows signs of easing, but it does not cause a recession, but “almost” the U.S. economy. I believe there is room for “smooth” landing. Thus, at a meeting hosted by The Wall Street Journal, the Fed’s head asserted that the Fed’s plan was to gradually raise the key rate by 0.5 points at the next meeting. But he didn’t rule out a significant increase of 0.75 points if needed …
Signs that inflation worsened by the war in Ukraine and its multiple consequences are beginning to affect the real economy, some celebrities in US distribution have warned that rising costs will hurt margins. Masu: Wal-Mart and a few targets. In France, Orpea got stuck while a new scandal (in this case finance) floated on top of Efado’s specialists. Conversely, Societe Generale was boosted by the announcement of its withdrawal from Russia, but Engie’s results soared due to soaring energy prices.
In the currency market, the euro countered the greenback at $ 1.05 between banks on Friday evening, and Bitcoin again surpassed $ 30,000 at CoinDesk. Finally, in the black gold market, WTI and Brent are trading over $ 112.
* Vallourec won 13% after a significant drop in results in the first quarter and the announcement of a new major restructuring. Seamless Tube Specialists generated a total operating profit of € 45 million, down 44% year-on-year, to 916 ME (+ 30%) in the first three months of the year, adversely affected by the shutdown of the Brazilian iron mine. As part of streamlining the group structure, Vallourec cuts about 2,950 jobs (from more than 17,000 positions worldwide), closes certain factories in Germany, France and the United Kingdom, and relocates some of its production in Brazil. And accelerate future profits. growth. “With these decisions, Vallourec should be able to remain profitable regardless of market conditions,” said Philippe Guillemot, who was appointed CEO last March.
* Air France-KLM is up 11%. After the announcement, during the announcement of the 2021 annual financial results, it was announced that carriers are discussing the second phase of capital strengthening measures exclusively with investment fund Apollo Global Management with a view to injecting $ 500 million. Shown. Euro with the capital of Air France’s spare engine subsidiary. The proceeds of the transaction can partially repay aid from France and reduce the cost of debt. “This structure will not bring about any operational or social changes,” the group added, adding that the transaction would not affect employee contracts.
* Engie also surged 11% due to the increase in the 2022 target. The Energy Group forecasts a net recurring profit of € 3.8-4.4 billion for the current fiscal year (previous forecast of € 310-3.3 billion) and an EBITDA range of € 11.7-12.7 billion (107-). Based on EBIT (against € 11.1 billion) and € 7-8 billion (€ 6.1-6.5 billion). A major French gas supplier has also shown that it has reached an agreement with Gazprom on the mechanism currently in place, allowing it to meet Russia’s gas payment obligations, but Moscow is currently final. Ruble-while avoiding currency risk. Full of the benefits of rising energy prices, Engie generated € 3.5 billion in Ebit in the first quarter, up 74% and 76.4% on an organic basis to € 25.6 billion (+ 85% and + 84.4 on an organic basis). %) Made a profit. ).
* Ubisoft will increase by 8%. The title has benefited not only from the Societe Generale’s rating, which recently raised its file recommendations to “buy” with a goal of € 55.3, but also from the announcement of the release of the “free” game. “Roller Champions” on May 25th. SocGen analyst Richard-Maxime Beaudoux (“buy”) expects Ubisoft to announce some “free-to-play” titles on all platforms in 2023, but “which games will be released?” Still do not know.
* GTT earns 8% boosted by new orders. This group was selected by our partner, Hyundai Heavy Industries, a Korean shipyard, to design ultra-low temperature tanks for six container ships powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG).
* Valeo and Faurecia account for more than 5%. Citi (“neutral”) said Valeo’s management confirmed that car production had bottomed out in April and activity had improved in May. The bank referred to an online meeting with Group Chief Financial Officer Robert Charvie, noting that the main factors that put pressure on production are showing signs of a slowdown. The situation in China is improving. The bottleneck of the Russian / Ukraine war has eased, and the shortage of semiconductors is showing signs of recovery.
* Societe Generale will move forward by 5%. La Banque de la Défense was supported by a note from KBW that raised the file recommendations to “outperform” with a goal of € 32.5. According to analysts, the completion of the sale of Rosbank and its insurance subsidiary in Russia should be a “welcome bailout.” This business will allow the Group to refocus on core activities, continue global market dynamics and reduce the risk of cost inflation. Some strategic milestones have not yet been achieved in 2022, but implementation has been good so far, so there is little reason to be afraid to endanger the achievement of these goals. The broker adds.
Conversely, * Orpea fell by nearly 30%. A second scandal specializes in addiction care after Orpea accuses Orpea of being an act of negligence and restriction against residents of the facility after a massive protest caused by the release of a research book by journalist Victor Castanet. Floating on the house. According to a study conducted by Mediapart and Investigate Europe, the group expanded its business in Europe by relying on an unknown Luxembourg holding company while avoiding taxes in Italy. In response to this information, Orpea said, “A complaint against X evoked actions that the company had previously condemned to the Nantere Prosecutor’s Office, the submission of which was communicated to the market on May 2, 2022. The complaint was the result of an investigation. This has revealed a certain number of frauds that may have harmed the company or its subsidiaries. The company has been seriously affected by cash or real estate assets following such condemned measures. We have not currently identified any adverse effects. We will take all steps we own to recover the amount that would have been stolen for these actions.
* Derichebourg stumbles 13%. Twenty-four hours after announcing its desire to increase its stake in Elior’s round to 19.6%, Derichebourg told AMF on May 18th 5%, 10%, and 15% of capital and voting rights. Declared that the threshold has been exceeded. Elior holds 33,770,218 shares, which is equivalent to the same number of voting rights, or 19.58% of the company’s capital and voting rights. In the same letter, the Business and Environmental Services Group explained that it plans to increase its stake in Elior depending on market conditions and opportunities, without reaching 30% of capital or voting rights. increase. Therefore, he has no plans to dominate the company, and his investment shows Delishbourg’s confidence in Erior’s development capabilities and his desire to support the latter strategy in both collective catering and business services. I’m emphasizing. This operation remains very confusing among analysts. To Oddo BHF, this deal looks very surprising, for example, both at its timing (what is Derichebourg’s urgency?) And its terms.
* Carrefour produced 9% (-5%) at the casino and was punished by two American giants Wal-Mart and Target’s publications. Other small US retailers have also lowered their forecasts due to the sharp rise in costs.
* Seb fell 6%, Oddo BHF downgraded its share price to “neutral” and lowered its target from € 159 to € 134. Equities with medium-term fundamentals (very healthy balance sheet structure, acquisition capacity) may look like “value” (EV / ROC 2022e: 10.9x, FCF yield 6% or higher), but in China Extrinsic shock of slowdown (25% of consumer sales), consumption uncertainty, and strong seasonality of results (35% of annual ropas will be achieved in the fourth quarter) pose risks to annual targets. increase. In this context, Seb may seem difficult to outperform in the short term …